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Project

#84 Safety and Cost Assessment of Connected and Automated Vehicles

Principal Investigator
Chris Hendrickson
Status
Completed
Start Date
Jan. 1, 2015
End Date
Dec. 31, 2015
Project Type
Research Advanced
Grant Program
MAP-21 TSET - Tier 1 (2012 - 2016)
Grant Cycle
2015 TSET UTC
Visibility
Public

Abstract

Connected and automated vehicles should have significant net benefits due to crash reduction (including direct cost savings and associated roadway congestion), enabling greater mobility for the disabled and elderly, and improved fuel economy due to more efficient driving.  Congestion reduction due to platooning and smoother merges and more compact and cost efficient land use may also be possible with advanced automated vehicles, especially if autonomous vehicles can use more distant parking or shared vehicles become widespread.  Costs of connectivity and automation include the possibility of more driving and the required equipment and software, both in vehicle and in associated infrastructure.  This project is using observed crash reductions from partial automation, analytical models and expert elicitation to assess the overall likely benefits and costs of different levels and types of connectivity and automation.  The project is intended to help inform decision makers among regional transportation managers, designers of connected and automated vehicle test beds, vehicle makers, transportation policy makers and the general public.  Results are to be disseminated in the form of professional papers and policy briefs.
Description
We propose an integrated assessment of cost savings for future scenarios of connected and autonomous vehicles.  The assessment will be assembled from the various categories of costs currently existing, including crashes of particular types (e.g. NHTSA 2008), changes in crash frequencies with partial automation (e.g. **Corey toadd**), congestion due to crash incidents (e.g. Shrank 2009) , and air pollution costs (e.g. Mashayekh 2011).  We will elicit expert judgments of the extent to which these costs can be avoided with universal implementation of advanced connected vehicle technologies and alternative fuels.  We will also extrapolate development and implementation costs to enable benefit/cost analyses of alternative scenarios.

Task 1: Assessment of direct savings from crash avoidance, including vehicle damage and injury.Task 2. Assessment of potential indirect savings from crash avoidance due to reduced congestion from crash incidents, reduced emergency response, and changes to design criteria and investment decisions   including   but   not   limited   to   capacity   of   lanes,   traffic   signal   designs,   in-road communication devices, clear zone investments and dynamic message signs will be evaluated.Task 3: Assessment of equilibrium changes in roadway travel, including rebound effects of more driving due to autonomous vehicles and alternative fuels (since battery vehicles will have lower per kilometer costs).Task 4. Connected vehicles’ impact on transit and  other vehicles  and  how  route  decisions  will change based on real-time passenger information will be examined and evaluated using data from the Pittsburgh test-bed and elsewhere.

Milestones and Deliverables Year 1:
1. A paper of recommendations and findings from Tasks 1-3 will be compiled, providing a roadmap on what savings may be possible and potential investments and incentives to achieve these savings.
Year 2:
1. A report of findings and recommendations from Task 4 and 5 will be compiled, providing an examination and evaluation of connected vehicles’ technology impacts on the safety of transit vehicles and riders, pedestrians, bicyclists, and passenger vehicles’ occupants. The report will also include the impact of connected vehicles’ technologies as well as the real time information disseminated from them on signal networks, land use decisions and transit scheduling and dispatch. 

Capability and Experience
This project will involve Al Biehler and Chris Hendrickson who collectively have over four decades of experience in transportation operations and research.

Matching Funds
Chris Hendrickson is PI on an ongoing(2014-2015, parallel project of benefit/cost assessment for natural gas liquid fuels funded by the Fuel Freedom Foundation in the amount of $ 418,000.

Any Other Information (optional)
This project is intended to help support test bed applications with assessment as well as a broader effort in connected and automated vehicle policy assessment.

References
[NHTSA 2008] National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, (2008), National MotorVehicleCrash Causation Survey: Report to Congresswww-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811059.PDF
[IIHS 2012] Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. (2012). They're working: Insurance claims data show which new technologies are preventing crashes.  Retrieved 13 October 2014, from http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/47/5/1.
[Shrank  2009] Shrank,  D.,  Lomax,  T.  The  2009  Urban  Mobility  Report;  Texas  Transportation  Institute; Texas A&M:   2009.
[Mashayekh,   2011] Mashayekh, Yeganeh,   et   al.   "Costs   of   automobile   air   emissions   in   US metropolitan   areas."Transportation   Research   Record:   Journal   of   the   Transportation   Research Board2233.-1 (2011): 120-127.
Timeline
We are assembling insurance company reported changes in crash frequencies, consolidating with national crash data and assessing the costs and benefits of the changes.  We expect to extend this work to consider possible design changes to lighter weight for automated vehicles and to observe impacts of connectivity in existing and planned connected vehicle test beds.
Strategic Description / RD&T

    
Deployment Plan

    
This is not a project to develop a new piece of technology.  Instead, it is intended to influence transportation management and policy decision making.

    
Expected Outcomes/Impacts

    
We expect to have several additional professional papers prepared by the end of December.  These papers should provide a firm basis for justifying policy changes to permit introduction of greater automation, connectivity and changes to transportation management.  Our metrics are both research results and receptivity of policy makers.

We have a paper to estimate an upper bound for additional elderly and disabled individual travel with autonomous vehicles accepted for the 2015 TRB meeting.

    
Expected Outputs

    

    
TRID

    


    
Individuals Involved

    

        
            

                Email
                Name
                Affiliation
                Role
                Position
            

        
        
            
                

                    cdharper@andrew.cmu.edu
                    Harper, Corey
                    CEE
                    Other
                    Student - PhD
                

            
                

                    cth@cmu.edu
                    Hendrickson, Chris
                    CIT/Heinz
                    PI
                    Faculty - Tenured
                

            
    


    
Budget


    
    
Amount of UTC Funds Awarded
 $75031.39
    
Total Project Budget (from all funding sources)
 $75583.00

    
Documents

    
        

            
                

                    Type
                    Name
                    Uploaded
                

            
            
                
                    
                
                    
                
                    
                    

                        Final Report
                        
                            Safety_and_Cost_Assessment_of_Connected_and_Automated_Vehicles.pdf
                        
                        April 2, 2018, 5:18 a.m.
                    

                    
                
                    
                
            
        

    

    
Match Sources

    
        
No match sources!

    


    
Partners

    
        
No partners!