#36 Estimating Safety Benefits and Costs and Changes in Vehicles Miles Traveled from Vehicle Automation
- Principal Investigator
- Chris Hendrickson
- Status
- Completed
- Start Date
- Jan. 1, 2016
- End Date
- Dec. 31, 2016
- Project Type
- Research Advanced
- Grant Program
- MAP-21 TSET National (2013 - 2018)
- Grant Cycle
- 2016 TSET UTC
- Visibility
- Public
Abstract
Vehicle automation has received considerable of attention, particularly due to its potential to improve road safety and decrease travel times. However, automation also has the potential to greatly alter travel patterns and in turn increase or decrease current total vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The net effect of automation on VMT is highly uncertain, depending strongly on cost, travel efficiency and comfort, and in-vehicle productivity. This policy research project would address two significant impacts of vehicle automation:
1. Do the safety benefits outweigh the technology costs for partial automation systems now being introduced? This task will use current motor vehicle offerings and insurance institute records. If new, partial automation technology is cost-effective, then it is highly likely that improved technology will be even more desirable.
2. What would be the bounds on the increases in VMT that might occur with driverless vehicles available for use? A large increase in VMT could result in many current transportation systems facing challenges in providing efficient and reliable service to users, while a decrease in VMT could have implications on land use. As vehicles become more automated, there are varying levels of crash avoidance technologies and potential safety benefits. During this transition period, additional VMT by automated and non-automated vehicles will likely have an impact on crash risk and road safety. This task will use NYC yellow taxicab trip and fare data, analytical models and expert elicitation to assess the overall likely impacts to current light duty VMT from vehicle automation. The task is intended to help inform decision makers among regional transportation managers, designers of connected and automated vehicle test beds, vehicle makers, transportation policy makers and the general public. Results are to be disseminated in the form of professional papers and policy briefs.
Description
In task 1, we propose to estimate the observed reduction in crash frequency and severity for vehicles equipped with partial automation systems. These safety benefits will be compared to the current cost of such equipment (which has been declining significantly in the past few years. We hypothesize that even partial automation is yielding new social benefits. In task 2, we will make an estimation of changes to current total light-duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from vehicle automation. The estimation will be assembled from various demand estimation methods, including travel demand elasticity and choice of mode demand models. Both estimation methods will focus on taxi cabs since it a travel mode that closely resembles automated travel. We will elicit expert judgments to the extent to which universal availability of automated taxis, land use changes, and changes in home location could impact travel demand and VMT. We will also estimate changes in travel cost in driverless taxis due to the absence of a driver. Statement of Work Task 1: a. compile insurance institute data on crashes and crash severity; b. compile prices of partial automation systems from various manufacturers; c. perform a benefit-cost analysis for existing partial automation and for a partially automated vehicle fleet for the entire country. Task 2: a. Assessment of current travel characteristics of those who use taxis and those who travel by personal vehicle; 2.b Examination of the effects of taxi fare increases on trip demand and taxi VMT. This will allow us to estimate an elasticity for taxi cab fares with respect to demand. 2.c: Development of choice of mode demand models to assess the trip decision process when people are deciding between personal vehicle, taxi, and transit and how choice of mode and VMT could be impacted by vehicle automation. 2.d. Assessment of changes in travel cost of driverless taxis due to the absence of the driver and shared taxis: taxi rides shared between 2 or more passengers going to different destinations. 2.e A number of induced travel demand scenarios neighborhood areas of differing characteristics will be evaluated to examine how changes in land use and home locations, and the universal availability of taxis impact VMT. Milestones and Deliverables Year 1: Papers on the benefits and costs of partial automation will be finalized along with a paper containing a preliminary assessment of vehicle miles traveled. Year 2: A paper of findings and recommendations from Tasks 2.d and 2.e will be compiled, providing an examination and evaluation of changes in the cost of a taxi due to the absence of a driver and the ability to perform shared taxi rides. The will also include induced travel demand scenarios, which evaluate the impacts of changes in land use and home locations and the widespread availability of taxis on light-duty VMT. Capability and Experience This project will involve Chris Hendrickson and Costa Samaras who collectively have over four decades of experience in transportation operations and research. Al Biehler will also be involved in the project as a member of Corey Harper’s thesis committee. Partners and Targeted Deployments 1. PaDOT and other DOTs 2. NHTSA Matching Funds The Mellon Foundation Port Authority project (Chris Hendrickson PI) can be counted as matching funds for the UTC. In addition, a Dean’s Fellowship through CIT can be counted as matching funds. Also, please attach your abbreviated CV (max 2 pages) and a list of your publications (journal publications in particular) as well as your courses related to transportation (please see RFP). Any Other Information (optional) This project is intended to provide technical justification for the technology development efforts of Traffic 21. Previous work resulted in the following papers: Harper, Corey, et al. "Bounding the Potential Increases in Vehicles Miles Traveled for the Non-Driving and Elderly Populations and People with Travel-Restrictive Medical Conditions in an Automated Vehicle Environment. “Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting. No. 15-1609. 2015. Hayeri, Yeganeh Mashayekh, et al. "Impacts of Vehicle Automation on Workforce Training and Driver’s Licensing." Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting. No. 15-2492. 2015. Corey Harper made poster presentations on these papers at the Transportation Research Board and ITS America Conferences.
Timeline
An initial assessment of benefits and costs of partial automation is out for peer review and a major task will be updating and revising this paper in response to reviewer comments. We are assembling NYC yellow taxicab trip and fare data from January 2010 to June 2015, consolidating with changes in city wide fare prices and assessing the impacts of changes in fare price on taxi demand. We expect to extend this work to consider the options for existing roadways to transition to accommodating automated vehicles to and to observe impacts of these changes on travel demand and construction costs.
Strategic Description / RD&T
Deployment Plan
This is not a project to develop a new piece of technology. Instead, it is intended to influence transportation management and policy decision making.
Expected Outcomes/Impacts
We expect to have several additional professional papers prepared by the end of the project. These papers should provide a firm basis for justifying policy changes to permit introduction of greater automation, connectivity and changes to transportation management. Our metrics are both research results and receptivity of policy makers.
Expected Outputs
TRID
Individuals Involved
| Name | Affiliation | Role | Position | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cth@cmu.edu | Hendrickson, Chris | CIT/Heinz | PI | Faculty - Research/Systems |
| csamaras@cmu.edu | Samaras, Costa | CIT | Co-PI | Faculty - Research/Systems |
Budget
Amount of UTC Funds Awarded
$42037.00Total Project Budget (from all funding sources)
$42037.00Documents
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Partners
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