Project: #86 A Drive for Better Air Service: How connected and autonomous vehicles influence changes in intercity transportation flows and demands Progress Report - Reporting Period Ending: March 31, 2018 Principal Investigator: Megan Ryerson Status: Completed Start Date: June 1, 2017 End Date: Dec. 31, 2017 Research Type: Advanced Grant Type: Research Grant Program: MAP-21 TSET National (2013 - 2018) Grant Cycle: 2017 TSET UTC Progress Report (Last Updated: March 31, 2018, 8:56 p.m.) % Project Completed to Date: 90 % Grant Award Expended: 0 % Match Expended & Document: 0 USDOT Requirements Accomplishments Between 2000 and 2010, newly merged U.S. airlines decreased service to airports in small and mid-sized metropolitan regions, opting to consolidate their operations at high-value airport hubs (passenger transfer points). At this point travelers living in small and mid-sized regions likely began leaking, or abandoning their local airport to take flights from hub airports offering more convenient flight options. The extent of this practice, however, is not well established. Our study asks to what extent airline consolidation deepened the divide in service levels between airports that are 100–300 miles apart, and seeks to estimate the magnitude of air traveler leakage at small and medium airports across the U.S. We estimate that travelers living in small and mid-sized metropolitan regions have the incentive to “leak” from their airport to a distant, better-served airport. Our estimates suggest that 15.7%–31.8% of the total passengers living proximate to a small or mid-sized airport have the incentive to leak. Our estimates range from 10.8% to 33.0% for travelers facing a non-stop itinerary from their local airport and 33.3%–85.1% for travelers facing a connecting itinerary. The potential leaked passengers contribute 1–2.75% of average daily highway traffic at heavily congested portions of the interstate highways connecting airports and up to 10–12% of traffic on low density portions of the highway. Our study illustrates the relationship between interregional surface transportation and the aviation system by estimating the number of travelers who may choose to travel long distances by car to access a relatively busier, larger airport with better service. The results of this study help to shape the evolving role of airport managers in controlling demand and delay at major hub airports and in building and managing air service and smaller airports across the U.S. Impacts In a future with new vehicle technologies it is possible that travelers will value ground access distance or time very little. Scholars surmise that automation, from connected vehicles that assist drivers in finding the routes with the lowest traffic and maintain a safe distance from other vehicles to autonomous vehicles which perform the driving function, will reduce a traveler’s effective value of time (Krueger et al., 2016; van den Berg and Verhoef, 2016). A long drive to access an airport with higher levels of service may be of little consequence to a traveler with an autonomous vehicle. If this is the case, and new vehicle technologies become widely available, the coefficient on ground access time and distance might trend toward zero, thus increasing the likelihood that a passenger leak to the substitute airport. If this is the case, then our base estimates are actually a lower bound rather than an upper bound on the potential for airport market leakage. Other TedXPenn Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ftup6Hmwo4 Outcomes New Partners None Issues None